How Bernie Sanders is hijacking the Democratic Party to be elected as an independent
By Philip Bump
March 15, 2016 at 10:11 AM
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Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders challenged frontrunner Hillary Clinton on her paid speeches to Wall Street on the eve of a crucial voting day, with five more states headed to the polls on March 15. (Reuters)
During Monday night's MSNBC town hall -- the 200th so far this month, by our count -- Bernie Sanders made a comment that raised some eyebrows among supporters of Hillary Clinton.
Asked by an Ohio voter why he chose to run as a Democrat, despite having served for years as an independent, Sanders explained his thinking. "We did have to make that decision: Do you run as an independent? Do you run within the Democratic Party?," he said. "We concluded -- and I think it was absolutely the right decision -- that A) in terms of media coverage, you had to run within the Democratic Party." (B, if you're curious, was that you needed to be "a billionaire" to run as an independent.)
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The Fix's Philip Bump explains why Bernie Sanders essentially had to run as a Democrat, not an independent. (The Washington Post)
It's understandable that dyed-in-the-wool Democrats would find this annoying. Imagine, a politician so crass as to leverage the resources available to him in order to win an election! But from that standpoint, it's worse than they think.
Last month, we noted that the emergence of the Internet allowed candidates like Sanders to be viable in ways that they couldn't have been two decades ago. Sanders's massive small-donor fundraising capability is solely a function of technology: one-click contributions and text message replies. The emergence of the now-infamous Berniebro -- Sanders's sometimes-painfully energetic base of support on the Internet -- is a function of the ability of the web to create pockets of individuals with a shared focus and interest. Technologist Clay Shirky had a series of tweets that made the point neatly.
But that last point from Shirky isn't entirely correct. The party has one essential resource: A well-defined path to the presidency, which has been exploited more clearly on the Republican side. Donald Trump hopped the Maginot Line that the Republican establishment set up to protect its well-trampled path to the White House, and now Trump is marching along, unfettered. That's what Sanders wanted, too: The attention and processes that make a candidate viable in the eyes of more than just a few thousand people on Twitter.
What's important to note is that Sanders isn't just hijacking the party's processes -- he's hijacking the results.
If you look at the exit and entrance polling reported by CNN, you'll notice that Sanders consistently does far better with independents that vote in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. It's fairly simple to figure out how much of Sanders's support in each contest comes from independent voters. In many cases, it's nearly half.
To put a fine point on it: In eight of the 15 contests for which we have data, 40 percent or more of Sanders's support came from independent voters.
In at least three states -- New Hampshire, Oklahoma and Michigan -- those independent votes likely handed Sanders the win.
Exit and entrance polls are estimates, with their own margins of error, so it's important to note that the figures at play are not hard and fast. Which holds true for the next point as well.
If you look solely at the Democratic vote in the 15 contests for which we have exit polling and apply the margins to the delegate counts in those states, it's likely that the 214-delegate margin currently enjoyed by Clinton would be at least 150 delegates larger. If Sanders wouldn't have hit the delegate thresholds in Alabama and Mississippi, as seems likely, the spread would be larger still.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont speaks during a campaign event at the Apollo Theater in New York. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)Sanders greets the crowd after speaking at a campaign event at the Apollo Theater in New York. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)Sanders, center right, sits during a campaign event at the Apollo Theater in New York. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)Sanders casts a shadown on the stage as he speaks at a campaign event at the Apollo Theater in New York. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders and his wife, Jane, arrive on stage for a campaign event in the Bronx. (Mary Altaffer/AP)Sanders speaks at Bronx Community College in New York. (Eric Thayer/Getty Images)Actress Susan Sarandon stands onstage after introducing Sanders at a campaign rally at Bronx Community College. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)Supporters listen to Sanders at Bronx Community College in New York. (Eric Thayer/Getty Images)Sanders speaks at a campaign rally at Bronx Community College. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)People in the audience react to meeting Sanders at Bronx Community College. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)Sanders speaks at a campaign rally at the United Palace in New York. (Eric Thayer/Getty Images)Supporters clap as Sanders speaks during a campaign event in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York. (Mary Altaffer/AP)Sanders waves at supporters after a campaign event in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York. (Mary Altaffer/AP)Supporters pose for a picture as they hold posters with Sanderss outline before a rally in New York. (Kena Betancur/AFP/Getty Images)Sanders speaks at a campaign rally near the East River in New York. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)Supporters listen as Sanders speaks during a rally at WNYC Transmitter Park in Brooklyn (Eric Thayer/Getty Images)Sanders addresses a crowd at WNYC Transmitter Park in Brooklyn. (Eric Thayer/Getty Images)Sanders speaks outside his childhood home in Brooklyn. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)Sanders reaches out to the crowd after a campaign event in Brooklyn. (Craig Ruttle/AP)Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks during a campaign stop at the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Convention in Philadelphia. (Matt Rourke/AP)Sen. Bernie Sanders and his wife, Jane, eat at the Brooklyn Diner in New York. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)Sen. Bernie Sanders gestures to supporters during a campaign rally in Laramie, Wyo. Sanders won the Democratic presidential primary in Wisconsin on Tuesday. (Brennan Linsley/AP)Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders arrives to have breakfast at the Blue's Egg restaurant in Milwaukee. (Darren Hauck/Getty Images)Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks with a patron while stopping for breakfast at Blues Egg. (Mark Kauzlarich/Reuters)Sanders eats breakfast in Milwaukee on the day of the Wisconsin primary. (Mark Kauzlarich/Reuters)Sanders speaks with a patron at Blue's Egg. (Mark Kauzlarich/Reuters)Bernie Sanders arrives at a campaign rally at the Wisconsin Convention Center in Milwaukee. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)People cheer at a Sanders campaign rally at the Wisconsin Convention Center. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)Sanders arrives onstage at his campaign rally in Milwaukee. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)Sanders pumps his fist during the Milwaukee campaign event. (Paul Sancya/AP)Supporters listen as Sanders speaks in Milwaukee. (Paul Sancya/AP)Sanders speaks in Milwaukee. (Paul Sancya/AP)Sanders speaks at the Wisconsin Convention Center. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)Supporters hold up signs as Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wis. (Mark Kauzlarich/Reuters)Sanders addresses the crowd at the Sheboygan South High School Acuity field house in Wisconsin. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)People hold signs that say A future to believe in during Sanderss campaign event in Sheboygan, Wis. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders and his wife, Jane, wave to supporters at Sheboygan South High School in Sheboygan, Wis. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)A supporters holds a sign at Sanderss campaign event in Sheboygan, Wis. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)Sanders shakes hands with a supporter after his address at the Sheboygan South High School in Wisconsin. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)A woman holds a drawing of Sanders as he speaks at a campaign rally at the University of Wisconsin at Green Bay campus in Green Bay, Wis. (Mark Kauzlarich/Reuters)Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks during a rally at Safeco Field in Seattle. (Jason Redmond/AFP/Getty Images)Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders pumps his fist at passers-by while arriving for breakfast at Lou Mitchell's Restaurant and Bakery in Chicago. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)Bernie Sanders smiles as he sits for breakfast with his guests, Cook County Commissioner, Jess "Chuy" Garcia and his wife Evelyn at Lou Mitchell's Restaurant and Bakery in Chicago. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)Supporters listen as Sanders speaks to them during a rally at the PNC Music Pavilion in Charlotte. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)
Photo Gallery: Highlights from Bernie Sanders’s campaign, in pictures
Sanders ran as a Democrat because he recognized that blazing his own trail through the political wilderness didn't make sense. The party -- a party with which he has caucused for years -- had already done that hard work. But Sanders is competitive because he has organized an Internet-based army and because he is getting huge support in primary voting from independents.
If what party elders take away from Sanders's MSNBC comments is that he doesn't really care about or need the party -- that last part is mostly true.