David Cameron’s “new settlement” with the EU may get past Polish objections on rules for migrants and the campaign by British Eurosceptics to scupper it in the UK’s referendum.
But it may not survive the Walloons.
The UK prime minister’s deal is potentially subject to veto by six separate Belgian parliaments, including one in French-speaking Wallonia and the assembly of the 76,000-strong German-speaking community, London has been warned.
During negotiations on Thursday, senior Belgian officials raised the prospect of Britain’s deal requiring ratification through the country’s Byzantine political structures, which include one federal, three regional and two language-community parliaments.
While Mr Cameron’s package looks set to be agreed by EU leaders at a summit on Thursday, paving the way to a June referendum in the UK, there remain many legal and political snags that could endanger a smooth deal. Downing Street is already worried about the European Parliament holding a post-referendum veto on legislation tied to the deal.
Belgium fears Mr Cameron’s demand for a binding promise of future EU treaty change would trigger its complex internal clearance procedures, leaving the terms open to veto and delaying adoption for months or years.
At 589 days, Belgium holds the record for the longest time spent forming a coalition government in the modern democratic era.
A further problem is the staunch opposition of both the Wallonia region and French-speaking community to some of Mr Cameron’s demands. Both parliaments are opposed to migrant benefit curbs and reject any changes to the EU treaties, even if promised at an unspecified future date.
Stéphane Hazée, leader of the opposition Green group in the Wallonian parliament, said the draft UK pact “could perhaps be the end of the EU as we know it”. His group opposes a “boutique Europe” approach that would stymie further vital economic and political integration.
Diplomats working on the UK deal expect the vexing Belgian constitutional conundrum to eventually be solved. One eurozone official interpreted Brussels’ warning as an attempt to secure leverage on other points.
If you want to go, just go. We will not let you ruin Europe by staying.”
Charles Michel, the Belgian prime minister, is one of the strongest critics of Mr Cameron’s demand for Britain to be excluded from the EU treaty mantra of “ever closer union”. Mr Michel once told Mr Cameron in a private meeting: “If you want to go, just go. We will not let you ruin Europe by staying.”
A Belgian official confirmed negotiators had “sought assurances” that the British texts “do not imply a legal obligation for treaty change”. Although EU lawyers insist no such national ratification procedures are necessary, the Belgian official said they were still seeking “to clarify this point and to exclude any last-minute surprises or difficulties” at Thursday’s summit.
Belgium was not the only country to raise ratification concerns during a meeting of the “sherpas” — the officials negotiating the UK package. Some countries may also need a parliamentary mandate to negotiate at the summit.
“People said, if you are talking about new treaties or commitments, watch out because promises like that need to be ratified,” said one senior diplomat present. “In Belgium you have different parliaments with different parties and majorities. It’s complicated.”
The exact role the Belgian regions will play in approving any deal will depend on the final legal form of the accord and on the potential impact of its policy measures. Some eurozone countries would prefer a promise of future treaty change for Britain to be included in a non-binding declaration of the European Council, rather than in a decision, which has the legal force of an international treaty.
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